By Nishindra Kinjalk
PATNA: With the Bihar Assembly elections barely weeks away, the state’s political landscape is in flux. Both the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Grand Alliance appear locked in tense last-minute negotiations, as reports of internal discord and shifting loyalties grip Patna’s power corridors.
NDA’s Uneasy Equation: BJP’s Tight Grip, JDU’s Growing Resentment
Despite public claims of unity, the NDA’s seat-sharing formula is anything but settled. Unconfirmed sources indicate that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its smaller allies may field 142 candidates out of Bihar’s 243 assembly seats — leaving the Janata Dal (United) (JDU) on the defensive.
Under the emerging arrangement, BJP is expected to contest 101 seats, while Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) gets 29, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha 6, and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha another 6. That leaves the JDU with just 101 seats — a significant slide for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, whose strained ties with the BJP are now an open secret.
Party insiders say Kumar is “deeply unhappy” with the arrangement but running out of time to renegotiate. “The BJP seems to have tightened its noose,” said a senior Patna-based analyst. “This may well be a strategic step toward a post-election realignment.”
The ‘Operation Lotus’ Theory: BJP’s Silent Infiltration?
In Muzaffarpur district, the BJP appears to have made quiet inroads into traditional JDU strongholds. Two candidates, Ajay Prasad and Ajeet Kumar, both known BJP faces, are reportedly contesting from Meenapur and Kanti on JDU symbols. Meanwhile, the Gayaghat seat, long held by Maheshwar Prasad Yadav, has been allotted to the LJP, sidelining Yadav’s son Prabhat Kiran.
Political observers believe these are not isolated incidents. “There seems to be a sleeper cell within JDU aligned to BJP interests,” said one insider, adding that the arrangement could facilitate a post-poll “Operation Lotus” — a quiet shift of loyalties once results are declared on November 14. If true, Nitish Kumar’s grip on the 1 Anne Marg Chief Minister’s residence may be weaker than it appears.
Grand Alliance: Familiar Frictions, Unsettled Deals
The opposition Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) is faring little better. Seat-sharing talks between Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD and the Congress remain deadlocked. Congress is demanding 70 seats, as in 2020, while RJD is offering no more than 40. Adding to the strain is Mukesh Sahni, chief of the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), who insists on 40 seats and a Deputy CM post — demands that Tejashwi Yadav has flatly rejected, capping the offer at 15 seats.
Sahni, visibly miffed, now finds himself politically isolated. RJD strategists, however, appear unbothered. “With Mangani Lal Mandal, an EBC stalwart, as state president, RJD believes it no longer needs Sahni’s support,” a senior party functionary said.
Lalu’s Tight Circle: Protecting the Heir Apparent
Within the RJD, sources say Lalu Prasad’s overriding concern remains clear — ensuring that no ambitious leader overshadows his son and heir, Tejashwi Yadav. Over the years, several strong regional figures have been marginalized, including Pappu Yadav, Upendra Kushwaha, Ram Kripal Yadav, Arjun Rai, Mukesh Sahni, and even Congress’s Kanhaiya Kumar.
“Laluji’s politics has always been about control,” remarked a veteran Patna journalist. “He will not promote anyone who could one day challenge Tejashwi.”
New Entrants, Old Grievances: Prashant Kishor Under Fire
Meanwhile, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party (JSP), once hailed as a reformist alternative, faces its own rebellion. After Kishor announced his list of candidates, several aspirants alleged corruption in ticket distribution. In Muzaffarpur, Sanjay Kejriwal, a prominent JSP member, publicly accused party officials of demanding ₹40 lakh for a nomination. Kishor has yet to respond.
Countdown to November: High Drama, Low Trust
As Bihar enters the final phase of pre-election maneuvering, both alliances face distrust within and turbulence without. The coming weeks could see defections, rebellion, and perhaps a few political surprises. In a state where alliances are fluid and loyalties often transactional, the only certainty is uncertainty.
